CryptoQuant Warning: Bitcoin Rebound Losing Steam, "Bull Market Index Hits Two and a Half Year Low," Key Resistance Level at $84,000–$96,000
Original Article Title: "CryptoQuant Warning: Bitcoin Rebound Weakens, 'Bull Market Index Hits Two and a Half Year Low,' Key Resistance Level at $84-96K"
Original Article Author: James, BlockTempo of DooArea and Trend
According to the CryptoQuant Insights report, following Trump's announcement of a 90-day tariff suspension, Bitcoin experienced a rebound, and the declines in ETH and XRP also narrowed. Despite the market rebound, CryptoQuant's "Bull Market Score Index" has dropped to 10, hitting its lowest level since November 2022, requiring a breakthrough of 40 to demonstrate a sustained bullish trend.
CryptoQuant points out that Bitcoin's current resistance level is between $84,000 and $96,000. If the uptrend weakens, the price increase will be limited, similar to the trend during past bearish market cycles. While the tariff suspension eased trade tensions, it did not reverse on-chain fatigue indicators such as declining network activity and weak stablecoin liquidity. Bitcoin saw a massive 27% drop earlier this week, marking the largest decline of this cycle and highlighting its vulnerability. CryptoQuant concludes that the trend of the Bull Market Index will depend on whether investor confidence can be reignited, and the market needs to remain vigilant.
Santiment: Tariff Exemption Policy Drives Market Rebound
According to the Santiment report, the tariff exemption policy announced by Trump over the weekend stimulated the crypto market's rise, significantly alleviating the high import cost pressure faced by the tech sector. The price of Bitcoin rose to a weekend high of $85,900, breaking through the resistance level near $83,000.
Historical data shows that assets like Bitcoin usually move in sync with the tech sector, especially when investors lean towards risk assets. Strong performance in tech stocks often boosts investor confidence in purchasing cryptocurrencies. Therefore, the tariff exemption policy indirectly eased the pressure on the crypto market.
Furthermore, Santiment points out that the tariff exemptions for semiconductors and computer parts have long-term benefits for the crypto ecosystem. These components are vital for crypto mining, blockchain infrastructure development, and AI-driven crypto tool creation. If these parts can continue to be supplied and priced reasonably, it will help the industry run smoothly.
This means that the operations of crypto exchanges, wallet service providers, and blockchain tech startups will be more seamless.
Although Trump's trade policy remains complex and unpredictable, Santiment believes that this specific exemption for tech devices provides clear short-term policy direction and eases the pressure on the crypto market. Investor confidence has been strengthened, and the inflation risk for consumer electronics has also eased, allowing businesses to address tariffs without raising prices or cutting back on innovation.
Santiment summarized that the market has experienced a mild upward reaction, with expectations of a stock market rise on Monday as well, further boosting Bitcoin and altcoins. However, after the initial reaction, the market will become more uncertain, and the general public's FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) sentiment may dampen the uptrend.
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